The Jan. 6 investigation and the Trump effect — CBS News poll

Heading into the next Jan. 6 House select committee hearing this week, the investigations into the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol have thus far had a bit of impact on vote choices, but it's a polarizing one. Slightly more people say it's made them more inclined to vote for Democrats, but that seems to be a mobilizing effect as much as a persuasion one, as many of those who say this are Democrats to begin with. But independents break this way, too. 

Slightly fewer, a third — including most Republicans — say it makes them more likely to vote Republican. 

Looking specifically at former President Donald Trump in the context of the law and former presidents: Voters of all political stripes do not believe that Trump should generally be considered any differently from other Americans, and given special exemptions from the law as a former chief executive. Big majorities would see all Americans — including Trump — considered equally under the law.

As a factor in voting, Trump is a net negative with the rest of the electorate overall, as noted in earlier analyses. More voters are voting to oppose Trump than support him, on balance.

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This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,253 registered voters interviewed between September 21-23, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.3 points. 

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Anthony Salvanto

Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is CBS News' director of elections and surveys. He oversees all polling across the nation, states and congressional races, and heads the CBS News Decision Desk that estimates outcomes on election nights. He is the author of "Where Did You Get This Number: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World," from Simon & Schuster (a division of Paramount Global), and appears regularly across all CBS News platforms. His scholarly research and writings cover topics on polling methodology, voting behavior, and sampling techniques.

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