China emissions could go into 'structural decline' next year

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SINGAPORE — China's greenhouse emissions could start going into "structural decline" as early as next year as power generation from fossil fuels starts to fall, analysis from the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed.

The world's biggest producer of climate-warming greenhouse gases has pledged to bring its emissions to a peak "before 2030", but its construction of new coal-fired power plants has raised concerns that carbon dioxide (CO2) would peak at a much higher level than previously estimated.

The country's stance on fossil fuels is expected to be a key issue at COP28 climate talks in Dubai this month, with top envoy Xie Zhenhua telling diplomats in September that a phase-out was "unrealistic".

However, CREA's lead analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta, said emissions could start to go into "structural decline" as early as 2024, despite an estimated rebound of 4.7 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2023.

Factors such as record levels of new renewable installations, a rebound in hydropower generation and a moderate economic recovery that has not relied on infrastructural investment "all but guarantee" a decline in China's CO2 emissions next year, he said.

"If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China's wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024," he wrote in an analysis published by Carbon Brief on Monday (Nov 13). "This would push fossil fuel use — and emissions — into an extended period of structural decline."

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